By Anthee Carassava
Monday, December 3, 2007
ATHENS: Fearing new instability in the Balkans, a special United Nations envoy will visit Athens and Skopje this week to try to revive negotiations over a dispute that threatens to undercut Macedonia’s chances of joining NATO.
The UN-sponsored initiative by the special envoy, Matthew Nimetz, comes a month after Greece and Macedonia began a new round of negotiations over what the former Yugoslav republic of two million people should call itself.
Despite the initiative – the third under the aegis of the United Nations since Macedonia gained independence 16 years ago – the prospect of an agreement between Athens and Skopje appeared unlikely.
“There hasn’t been much movement,” a senior UN official said on condition of anonymity. “Both sides are clinging to their positions.”
Macedonia was the only former Yugoslav republic to win independence in the 1990s without bloodshed.
More than 120 countries, including the United States and Russia, have since recognized it as the Republic of Macedonia – a name Greeks consider exclusively Greek. Macedonia, they argue, is the name of a geographical region that incorporates the northern part of Greece and stands for Alexander the Great. It is not, Athens insists, a new nation of Slavs, Albanians and Bulgarians struggling to find a post-communist identity.
A provisional agreement in 1993 allowed the Balkan state to join the United Nations under a temporary name – the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. The same formula was used by Skopje to join the International Monetary Fund and to apply for membership in the European Union.
Now, years after offering its loyal support of the U.S. war in Iraq and after signing a string of treaties that exempt U.S. citizens from the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court, Macedonia expects to win NATO’s invitation for membership at a meeting in April.
But Greece, a longtime member of NATO, has threatened to veto Macedonia’s attempt to join the alliance unless it relinquishes claims to that name.
“This is the greatest leverage Athens has to squeeze out a settlement,” said Aristotle Tziampiris, an analyst at the Eliamep foreign policy institute in Athens. “The problem, though, is that it is a risky strategy and if it backfires it could spell a major diplomatic crisis within NATO, with Greece picking up the pieces for years.”
He added: “Officials in Athens are praying for Nimetz’s diplomatic shuttle to succeed.”
Since negotiations started in New York last month, Skopje has refused to abandon the name Macedonia for international relations, offering instead a name change only for use in dealings with Greece.
Athens insists a deal must apply internationally. But despite a flurry of opinion polls showing up to 70 percent support for a veto on Macedonia’s NATO aspirations, the government has softened its stance, throwing its weight behind the UN talks.
Macedonia, wedged between Greece, Albania and Bulgaria, also borders the Serbian province of Kosovo. It has a growing and restive Albanian minority that could be drawn into the ethnic cauldron as Kosovo’s ethnic Albanians threaten to declare independence as early as next week.
“A weak Macedonia would have NATO inheriting a weaker alliance and Greece dealing with a weaker, more vulnerable neighbor,” Tziampiris said.
Those fears of regional instability have Greek diplomats lobbying NATO to keep Macedonia’s application on ice, a move that would give more time to the special UN mediator to broker a deal between Athens and Skopje.
Source – International Herald Tribune